dividend_initiation
event default: long
Definition
Fires when a company pays its first dividend ever. Signals management confidence in cash flow durability.
Trigger logic
Current fy CommonStockDividendsPerShareDeclared > 0 AND no prior dividend in facts.
Source: signals/build_signals.py:164
Calibration — gross stock return vs net of execution costs
Cost model: 5 bps half-spread each side, 10 × √($1M / 30d ADV) impact each side, ADV-tiered borrow (≥$50M ADV → 10 bps annual; ≥$5M → 30; <$5M → 100), scaled by holding_days/252 if short.
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Net PnL | Hit rate | r/σ net | Avg cost (bps) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 428 | -0.21% | -0.18% | +50.47% | -0.05 | 24 |
| 5d | 429 | -0.32% | -0.45% | +46.85% | -0.06 | 24 |
| 20d | 428 | -0.26% | -0.50% | +52.10% | -0.04 | 24 |
| 60d | 408 | +2.32% | +2.29% | +55.39% | +0.10 | 24 |
| 252d | 406 | +18.78% | +19.04% | +61.82% | +0.21 | 24 |
Sector breakdown (top 8 by |r/σ| at 20d)
| SIC division | n | Mean 20d | Hit rate | r/σ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Services (business + personal) | 59 | +3.09% | +55.93% | +0.27 |
| Finance, Insurance, Real Estate | 108 | -2.82% | +44.44% | -0.20 |
| Transportation, Communications, Utilities | 32 | -1.88% | +50.00% | -0.18 |
| Manufacturing (light) | 53 | +1.97% | +58.49% | +0.11 |
| Mining + Construction | 32 | -0.72% | +50.00% | -0.04 |
| Manufacturing (heavy) | 93 | -0.39% | +56.99% | -0.03 |
| Wholesale + Retail Trade | 39 | +0.11% | +48.72% | +0.01 |
Recent triggers
OSPN— OneSpan Inc. (FY2025)REGN— REGENERON PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (FY2025)CRM— Salesforce, Inc. (FY2025)NGS— NATURAL GAS SERVICES GROUP INC (FY2025)VC— VISTEON CORP (FY2025)
Caveats
- Small sample (n=428 events).
- Long at 252d: +19.04% net. Slow build at 20d (-0.50% net).
Citations
- Healy & Palepu (1988). 'Earnings information conveyed by dividend initiations.' Journal of Financial Economics.
- Reverse regression at 20d: β +2.530, t=+2.98 ** (real predictor).
Live data → /api/methodology/signal/dividend_initiation · MCP → pyflo_signal_methodology(signal="dividend_initiation")