fcf_turn_positive
inflection default: long
Definition
Fires on the fiscal year a company first generates positive operating cash flow after a stretch of negative or zero. Inflection from cash-burning to self-funding.
Trigger logic
Current fy operating cash flow > 0 AND any of the prior 2 fy <= 0. From facts.parquet OperatingCashFlow tag.
Source: signals/build_signals.py:122
Calibration — gross stock return vs net of execution costs
Cost model: 5 bps half-spread each side, 10 × √($1M / 30d ADV) impact each side, ADV-tiered borrow (≥$50M ADV → 10 bps annual; ≥$5M → 30; <$5M → 100), scaled by holding_days/252 if short.
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Net PnL | Hit rate | r/σ net | Avg cost (bps) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,430 | +0.08% | -0.29% | +47.28% | -0.04 | 33 |
| 5d | 2,430 | +2.37% | +1.72% | +47.20% | +0.02 | 33 |
| 20d | 2,411 | +2.47% | +1.81% | +46.95% | +0.02 | 32 |
| 60d | 2,273 | +4.84% | +4.48% | +48.26% | +0.06 | 33 |
| 252d | 2,226 | +19.57% | +19.70% | +53.05% | +0.16 | 33 |
Sector breakdown (top 8 by |r/σ| at 20d)
| SIC division | n | Mean 20d | Hit rate | r/σ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wholesale + Retail Trade | 217 | +6.03% | +46.08% | +0.12 |
| Services (health + legal + edu) | 82 | +1.63% | +50.00% | +0.08 |
| Transportation, Communications, Utilities | 208 | +18.13% | +54.33% | +0.07 |
| Services (business + personal) | 348 | -1.50% | +43.39% | -0.07 |
| Manufacturing (light) | 400 | +3.43% | +48.00% | +0.06 |
| Mining + Construction | 192 | +1.21% | +53.65% | +0.05 |
| Manufacturing (heavy) | 645 | -0.42% | +45.89% | -0.02 |
| Finance, Insurance, Real Estate | 319 | -0.19% | +42.63% | -0.01 |
Recent triggers
MOV— MOVADO GROUP INC (FY2026)REX— REX AMERICAN RESOURCES Corp (FY2026)DLTH— DULUTH HOLDINGS INC. (FY2026)BURL— Burlington Stores, Inc. (FY2026)GTLB— Gitlab Inc. (FY2026)
Caveats
- Positive at all horizons net of costs (+1.81% / 20d, +4.48% / 60d, +19.70% / 252d).
- Best stand-alone long signal in the system.
- Pair with positive_eps_streak for confirmed quality (+5.08% / 20d net, n=687).
Citations
- Lev & Thiagarajan (1993). 'Fundamental information analysis.' Journal of Accounting Research.
Live data → /api/methodology/signal/fcf_turn_positive · MCP → pyflo_signal_methodology(signal="fcf_turn_positive")