← beneish_m_score_high (all companies) · TLYS (all signals) · all methodology
beneish_m_score_high on TILLY'S, INC. (TLYS)
SIC 5600 — Retail-Apparel & Accessory Stores · CIK 1524025 · default direction: short
Definition
Beneish 5-factor M-Score above the manipulator threshold (-1.78). Composite of DSO, gross margin, asset quality, sales growth, depreciation.
Every time the signal fired on TLYS
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2023 | 2024-04-11 | 2024-04-11 | +0.00% | -4.45% | +4.62% | -5.48% | -69.52% |
| FY2020 | 2021-04-01 | 2021-04-01 | +3.12% | +9.26% | +7.39% | +51.23% | -5.52% |
| FY2016 | 2017-03-20 | 2017-03-20 | -4.11% | -3.44% | -6.56% | +13.33% | +40.40% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,937 | +0.04% | +45.86% | short | -0.28% | 32 | -0.04 |
| 5d | 2,937 | +0.10% | +45.83% | short | +0.06% | 33 | +0.01 |
| 20d | 2,915 | +2.64% | +44.43% | short | -2.76% | 37 | -0.02 |
| 60d | 2,798 | +11.23% | +46.71% | short | -11.63% | 47 | -0.03 |
| 252d | 2,745 | +47.23% | +50.93% | short | -48.06% | 96 | -0.04 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See beneish_m_score_high methodology for the full audit.