← capex_spike (all companies) · AGEN (all signals) · all methodology
capex_spike on AGENUS INC (AGEN)
SIC 2836 — Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) · CIK 1098972 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires on >50% YoY capex increase. Captures aggressive reinvestment phases — often precedes value destruction in mature industries.
Every time the signal fired on AGEN
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2022 | 2023-03-16 | 2023-03-16 | -7.10% | -19.13% | -20.77% | +11.37% | -70.49% |
| FY2021 | 2022-03-01 | 2022-03-01 | +18.53% | +13.51% | +7.72% | -44.02% | -25.10% |
| FY2016 | 2017-03-16 | 2017-03-16 | -2.88% | -5.77% | -16.59% | -15.63% | +40.38% |
| FY2014 | 2015-03-16 | 2015-03-16 | +0.93% | -3.73% | +3.36% | +66.42% | -31.34% |
| FY2013 | 2014-03-07 | 2014-03-07 | +0.46% | -1.59% | -36.22% | -28.47% | +16.17% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,295 | +0.01% | +43.27% | short | -0.06% | 32 | -0.01 |
| 5d | 2,292 | -0.85% | +41.88% | short | +0.74% | 33 | +0.06 |
| 20d | 2,258 | -1.91% | +41.67% | short | +2.05% | 36 | +0.10 |
| 60d | 2,127 | +0.65% | +44.01% | short | -0.78% | 47 | -0.02 |
| 252d | 2,092 | +14.03% | +44.93% | short | -14.91% | 97 | -0.09 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See capex_spike methodology for the full audit.