← capex_spike (all companies) · AMS (all signals) · all methodology
capex_spike on AMERICAN SHARED HOSPITAL SERVICES (AMS)
SIC 8071 — Services-Medical Laboratories · CIK 744825 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires on >50% YoY capex increase. Captures aggressive reinvestment phases — often precedes value destruction in mature industries.
Every time the signal fired on AMS
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2023 | 2024-04-01 | 2024-04-01 | +0.00% | +1.37% | +10.92% | +11.60% | -4.44% |
| FY2021 | 2022-03-30 | 2022-03-30 | -0.85% | +0.00% | -6.36% | -2.97% | +19.07% |
| FY2018 | 2019-03-29 | 2019-03-29 | -3.24% | -2.52% | -0.72% | +6.83% | -38.13% |
| FY2014 | 2015-04-01 | 2015-04-01 | +5.88% | +11.34% | +11.76% | +7.14% | +0.00% |
| FY2012 | 2013-03-29 | 2013-04-01 | -4.48% | -10.95% | -17.91% | +12.94% | +60.70% |
| FY2011 | 2012-03-30 | 2012-03-30 | -1.45% | -1.74% | -7.25% | -9.28% | -47.54% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,295 | +0.01% | +43.27% | short | -0.06% | 32 | -0.01 |
| 5d | 2,292 | -0.85% | +41.88% | short | +0.74% | 33 | +0.06 |
| 20d | 2,258 | -1.91% | +41.67% | short | +2.05% | 36 | +0.10 |
| 60d | 2,127 | +0.65% | +44.01% | short | -0.78% | 47 | -0.02 |
| 252d | 2,092 | +14.03% | +44.93% | short | -14.91% | 97 | -0.09 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See capex_spike methodology for the full audit.