← capex_spike (all companies) · ARWR (all signals) · all methodology
capex_spike on ARROWHEAD PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (ARWR)
SIC 2834 — Pharmaceutical Preparations · CIK 879407 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires on >50% YoY capex increase. Captures aggressive reinvestment phases — often precedes value destruction in mature industries.
Every time the signal fired on ARWR
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 | 2024-11-26 | 2024-11-26 | +24.23% | +9.79% | -7.22% | -8.65% | +167.22% |
| FY2023 | 2023-11-29 | 2023-11-29 | -26.85% | -17.91% | +6.97% | +7.54% | -10.18% |
| FY2020 | 2020-11-23 | 2020-11-23 | -11.45% | -8.15% | +21.45% | +24.63% | +3.94% |
| FY2016 | 2016-12-14 | 2016-12-14 | +0.00% | +0.00% | +62.20% | +63.78% | +148.03% |
| FY2014 | 2014-11-25 | 2014-11-25 | -1.03% | -8.39% | +8.73% | +32.36% | +4.11% |
| FY2012 | 2012-12-28 | 2012-12-28 | +5.42% | +6.40% | -1.48% | +9.36% | +427.09% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,295 | +0.01% | +43.27% | short | -0.06% | 32 | -0.01 |
| 5d | 2,292 | -0.85% | +41.88% | short | +0.74% | 33 | +0.06 |
| 20d | 2,258 | -1.91% | +41.67% | short | +2.05% | 36 | +0.10 |
| 60d | 2,127 | +0.65% | +44.01% | short | -0.78% | 47 | -0.02 |
| 252d | 2,092 | +14.03% | +44.93% | short | -14.91% | 97 | -0.09 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See capex_spike methodology for the full audit.