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capex_spike on ASTROTECH Corp (ASTC)
SIC 3826 — Laboratory Analytical Instruments · CIK 1001907 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires on >50% YoY capex increase. Captures aggressive reinvestment phases — often precedes value destruction in mature industries.
Every time the signal fired on ASTC
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 2025-09-26 | 2025-09-26 | +4.40% | +17.60% | -18.80% | -24.80% | — |
| FY2023 | 2023-09-28 | 2023-09-28 | -1.66% | -8.28% | -6.43% | -20.84% | -22.20% |
| FY2015 | 2015-09-22 | 2015-09-22 | -2.63% | -16.23% | -9.65% | -23.25% | -23.68% |
| FY2014 | 2014-09-30 | 2014-09-30 | -3.90% | -8.16% | -13.48% | -14.54% | -26.60% |
| FY2013 | 2013-10-15 | 2013-10-15 | +29.90% | +68.04% | +56.70% | +201.03% | +128.87% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,295 | +0.01% | +43.27% | short | -0.06% | 32 | -0.01 |
| 5d | 2,292 | -0.85% | +41.88% | short | +0.74% | 33 | +0.06 |
| 20d | 2,258 | -1.91% | +41.67% | short | +2.05% | 36 | +0.10 |
| 60d | 2,127 | +0.65% | +44.01% | short | -0.78% | 47 | -0.02 |
| 252d | 2,092 | +14.03% | +44.93% | short | -14.91% | 97 | -0.09 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See capex_spike methodology for the full audit.