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capex_spike on CADIZ INC (CDZI)
SIC 4941 — Water Supply · CIK 727273 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires on >50% YoY capex increase. Captures aggressive reinvestment phases — often precedes value destruction in mature industries.
Every time the signal fired on CDZI
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 2026-03-31 | 2026-03-31 | +3.05% | +3.05% | — | — | — |
| FY2021 | 2022-03-29 | 2022-03-29 | -6.44% | -5.15% | -22.75% | +8.15% | +75.54% |
| FY2020 | 2021-03-26 | 2021-03-26 | +0.54% | +3.88% | +19.63% | +36.68% | -76.81% |
| FY2018 | 2019-03-18 | 2019-03-18 | -3.75% | -0.42% | +1.35% | +6.25% | +8.44% |
| FY2015 | 2016-03-14 | 2016-03-14 | -5.02% | -17.76% | -1.16% | +13.32% | +179.92% |
| FY2012 | 2013-03-15 | 2013-03-15 | +0.45% | +2.42% | -13.46% | -16.49% | +9.68% |
| FY2011 | 2012-03-15 | 2012-03-15 | -5.98% | -9.49% | -21.54% | -33.78% | -36.72% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,295 | +0.01% | +43.27% | short | -0.06% | 32 | -0.01 |
| 5d | 2,292 | -0.85% | +41.88% | short | +0.74% | 33 | +0.06 |
| 20d | 2,258 | -1.91% | +41.67% | short | +2.05% | 36 | +0.10 |
| 60d | 2,127 | +0.65% | +44.01% | short | -0.78% | 47 | -0.02 |
| 252d | 2,092 | +14.03% | +44.93% | short | -14.91% | 97 | -0.09 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See capex_spike methodology for the full audit.