← capex_spike (all companies) · CF (all signals) · all methodology
capex_spike on CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (CF)
SIC 2870 — Agricultural Chemicals · CIK 1324404 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires on >50% YoY capex increase. Captures aggressive reinvestment phases — often precedes value destruction in mature industries.
Every time the signal fired on CF
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 2026-02-25 | 2026-02-25 | +1.06% | +8.91% | +33.25% | — | — |
| FY2023 | 2024-02-22 | 2024-02-22 | +0.89% | +1.28% | +7.47% | -3.72% | +0.87% |
| FY2015 | 2016-02-25 | 2016-02-25 | +5.40% | +9.14% | -3.68% | -12.93% | -1.88% |
| FY2014 | 2015-02-26 | 2015-02-26 | -0.12% | -1.08% | -4.03% | +5.19% | -41.44% |
| FY2013 | 2014-02-27 | 2014-02-27 | +0.74% | +6.05% | +2.27% | -0.56% | +25.54% |
| FY2012 | 2013-02-27 | 2013-02-27 | +0.99% | +1.58% | -3.58% | -4.83% | +26.89% |
| FY2009 | 2010-02-25 | 2010-02-25 | +0.81% | +2.69% | -14.57% | -35.25% | +27.69% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,295 | +0.01% | +43.27% | short | -0.06% | 32 | -0.01 |
| 5d | 2,292 | -0.85% | +41.88% | short | +0.74% | 33 | +0.06 |
| 20d | 2,258 | -1.91% | +41.67% | short | +2.05% | 36 | +0.10 |
| 60d | 2,127 | +0.65% | +44.01% | short | -0.78% | 47 | -0.02 |
| 252d | 2,092 | +14.03% | +44.93% | short | -14.91% | 97 | -0.09 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See capex_spike methodology for the full audit.