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capex_spike on Cardiff Oncology, Inc. (CRDF)
SIC 2836 — Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) · CIK 1213037 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires on >50% YoY capex increase. Captures aggressive reinvestment phases — often precedes value destruction in mature industries.
Every time the signal fired on CRDF
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2022 | 2023-03-02 | 2023-03-02 | +1.73% | +4.05% | -4.62% | -4.05% | +101.73% |
| FY2020 | 2021-02-25 | 2021-02-25 | +6.05% | -5.85% | +7.49% | -19.28% | -72.62% |
| FY2019 | 2020-02-27 | 2020-02-27 | +11.38% | +17.07% | -17.89% | +67.48% | +740.65% |
| FY2015 | 2016-03-10 | 2016-03-10 | -10.74% | -15.54% | -17.19% | -12.56% | -70.25% |
| FY2013 | 2014-03-17 | 2014-03-17 | +1.29% | -5.48% | -20.48% | -38.87% | +15.81% |
| FY2012 | 2013-04-01 | 2013-04-01 | -1.13% | +0.16% | -3.40% | -4.85% | -7.28% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,295 | +0.01% | +43.27% | short | -0.06% | 32 | -0.01 |
| 5d | 2,292 | -0.85% | +41.88% | short | +0.74% | 33 | +0.06 |
| 20d | 2,258 | -1.91% | +41.67% | short | +2.05% | 36 | +0.10 |
| 60d | 2,127 | +0.65% | +44.01% | short | -0.78% | 47 | -0.02 |
| 252d | 2,092 | +14.03% | +44.93% | short | -14.91% | 97 | -0.09 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See capex_spike methodology for the full audit.