← capex_spike (all companies) · GERN (all signals) · all methodology
capex_spike on GERON CORP (GERN)
SIC 2834 — Pharmaceutical Preparations · CIK 886744 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires on >50% YoY capex increase. Captures aggressive reinvestment phases — often precedes value destruction in mature industries.
Every time the signal fired on GERN
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2023 | 2024-02-28 | 2024-02-28 | +2.56% | +7.69% | +69.74% | +78.97% | -12.31% |
| FY2022 | 2023-03-16 | 2023-03-16 | -4.53% | -13.96% | -25.66% | +27.92% | +20.00% |
| FY2020 | 2021-03-11 | 2021-03-11 | -8.99% | -7.41% | -21.69% | -21.16% | -41.80% |
| FY2019 | 2020-03-12 | 2020-03-12 | -3.03% | +4.04% | +12.12% | +69.70% | +73.74% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,295 | +0.01% | +43.27% | short | -0.06% | 32 | -0.01 |
| 5d | 2,292 | -0.85% | +41.88% | short | +0.74% | 33 | +0.06 |
| 20d | 2,258 | -1.91% | +41.67% | short | +2.05% | 36 | +0.10 |
| 60d | 2,127 | +0.65% | +44.01% | short | -0.78% | 47 | -0.02 |
| 252d | 2,092 | +14.03% | +44.93% | short | -14.91% | 97 | -0.09 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See capex_spike methodology for the full audit.