← capex_spike (all companies) · GEVO (all signals) · all methodology
capex_spike on Gevo, Inc. (GEVO)
SIC 2860 — Industrial Organic Chemicals · CIK 1392380 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires on >50% YoY capex increase. Captures aggressive reinvestment phases — often precedes value destruction in mature industries.
Every time the signal fired on GEVO
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2021 | 2022-02-24 | 2022-02-24 | -5.95% | +0.30% | +40.18% | +10.12% | -44.94% |
| FY2020 | 2021-03-18 | 2021-03-18 | +18.04% | +1.30% | -25.35% | -2.00% | -47.41% |
| FY2019 | 2020-03-17 | 2020-03-17 | -18.18% | -20.00% | -25.45% | +3.64% | +759.09% |
| FY2016 | 2017-03-31 | 2017-03-31 | -3.51% | -7.02% | -10.53% | -46.49% | -62.28% |
| FY2012 | 2013-03-26 | 2013-03-26 | +4.15% | -4.15% | -21.66% | -1.84% | -46.08% |
| FY2011 | 2012-02-28 | 2012-02-28 | +12.22% | -19.62% | +8.97% | -40.02% | -77.91% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,295 | +0.01% | +43.27% | short | -0.06% | 32 | -0.01 |
| 5d | 2,292 | -0.85% | +41.88% | short | +0.74% | 33 | +0.06 |
| 20d | 2,258 | -1.91% | +41.67% | short | +2.05% | 36 | +0.10 |
| 60d | 2,127 | +0.65% | +44.01% | short | -0.78% | 47 | -0.02 |
| 252d | 2,092 | +14.03% | +44.93% | short | -14.91% | 97 | -0.09 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See capex_spike methodology for the full audit.