← capex_spike (all companies) · INO (all signals) · all methodology
capex_spike on INOVIO PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (INO)
SIC 2834 — Pharmaceutical Preparations · CIK 1055726 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires on >50% YoY capex increase. Captures aggressive reinvestment phases — often precedes value destruction in mature industries.
Every time the signal fired on INO
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 2026-03-12 | 2026-03-12 | -1.19% | -1.79% | -36.90% | — | — |
| FY2024 | 2025-03-18 | 2025-03-18 | -6.67% | -13.81% | -16.19% | -0.95% | -21.43% |
| FY2023 | 2024-03-06 | 2024-03-06 | -8.51% | +13.98% | +21.07% | +2.63% | -80.24% |
| FY2021 | 2022-03-01 | 2022-03-01 | -5.86% | +0.62% | +17.90% | -46.60% | -59.88% |
| FY2019 | 2020-03-12 | 2020-03-12 | -24.21% | -31.68% | -14.53% | +26.63% | +10.53% |
| FY2017 | 2018-03-14 | 2018-03-14 | +8.28% | +14.09% | +15.44% | -0.67% | -21.25% |
| FY2014 | 2015-03-16 | 2015-03-16 | +1.66% | +5.23% | +24.47% | +5.23% | -22.33% |
| FY2012 | 2013-03-18 | 2013-03-18 | +0.00% | +5.66% | +1.89% | +20.75% | +547.17% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,295 | +0.01% | +43.27% | short | -0.06% | 32 | -0.01 |
| 5d | 2,292 | -0.85% | +41.88% | short | +0.74% | 33 | +0.06 |
| 20d | 2,258 | -1.91% | +41.67% | short | +2.05% | 36 | +0.10 |
| 60d | 2,127 | +0.65% | +44.01% | short | -0.78% | 47 | -0.02 |
| 252d | 2,092 | +14.03% | +44.93% | short | -14.91% | 97 | -0.09 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See capex_spike methodology for the full audit.