← capex_spike (all companies) · LCTX (all signals) · all methodology
capex_spike on Lineage Cell Therapeutics, Inc. (LCTX)
SIC 2836 — Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) · CIK 876343 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires on >50% YoY capex increase. Captures aggressive reinvestment phases — often precedes value destruction in mature industries.
Every time the signal fired on LCTX
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2023 | 2024-03-07 | 2024-03-07 | +15.04% | +2.65% | +23.89% | -9.73% | -53.10% |
| FY2021 | 2022-03-10 | 2022-03-10 | -4.29% | -2.86% | +0.71% | +0.71% | +1.43% |
| FY2016 | 2017-03-16 | 2017-03-16 | +15.81% | +4.19% | +5.16% | +1.94% | -10.00% |
| FY2015 | 2016-03-15 | 2016-03-15 | -2.07% | +11.57% | +26.03% | +14.46% | +27.27% |
| FY2013 | 2014-03-17 | 2014-03-17 | -3.36% | -5.88% | -20.45% | -15.13% | +22.97% |
| FY2011 | 2012-03-14 | 2012-03-14 | -1.04% | -6.83% | -14.49% | -9.94% | -10.14% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,295 | +0.01% | +43.27% | short | -0.06% | 32 | -0.01 |
| 5d | 2,292 | -0.85% | +41.88% | short | +0.74% | 33 | +0.06 |
| 20d | 2,258 | -1.91% | +41.67% | short | +2.05% | 36 | +0.10 |
| 60d | 2,127 | +0.65% | +44.01% | short | -0.78% | 47 | -0.02 |
| 252d | 2,092 | +14.03% | +44.93% | short | -14.91% | 97 | -0.09 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See capex_spike methodology for the full audit.