← capex_spike (all companies) · LXU (all signals) · all methodology
capex_spike on LSB INDUSTRIES, INC. (LXU)
SIC 2810 — Industrial Inorganic Chemicals · CIK 60714 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires on >50% YoY capex increase. Captures aggressive reinvestment phases — often precedes value destruction in mature industries.
Every time the signal fired on LXU
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 | 2025-02-27 | 2025-02-27 | -0.68% | -3.93% | -5.15% | -0.81% | +61.79% |
| FY2023 | 2024-03-06 | 2024-03-06 | +3.15% | +1.09% | +16.14% | +34.20% | -5.34% |
| FY2015 | 2016-02-29 | 2016-02-29 | +21.23% | +97.77% | +118.49% | +133.05% | +86.13% |
| FY2014 | 2015-03-02 | 2015-03-02 | +2.07% | +2.68% | +8.50% | +14.20% | -81.25% |
| FY2013 | 2014-02-27 | 2014-02-27 | +0.52% | +9.47% | +10.36% | +14.15% | +15.56% |
| FY2012 | 2013-02-28 | 2013-02-28 | -1.24% | +2.48% | -10.25% | -12.67% | -15.64% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,295 | +0.01% | +43.27% | short | -0.06% | 32 | -0.01 |
| 5d | 2,292 | -0.85% | +41.88% | short | +0.74% | 33 | +0.06 |
| 20d | 2,258 | -1.91% | +41.67% | short | +2.05% | 36 | +0.10 |
| 60d | 2,127 | +0.65% | +44.01% | short | -0.78% | 47 | -0.02 |
| 252d | 2,092 | +14.03% | +44.93% | short | -14.91% | 97 | -0.09 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See capex_spike methodology for the full audit.