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capex_spike on MP Materials Corp. / DE (MP)
SIC 1000 — Metal Mining · CIK 1801368 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires on >50% YoY capex increase. Captures aggressive reinvestment phases — often precedes value destruction in mature industries.
Every time the signal fired on MP
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2023 | 2024-02-28 | 2024-02-28 | -0.13% | -3.22% | -4.60% | +10.83% | +47.93% |
| FY2022 | 2023-02-28 | 2023-02-28 | +2.34% | -9.26% | -23.71% | -36.57% | -56.54% |
| FY2021 | 2022-02-28 | 2022-02-28 | -10.06% | -13.70% | +19.51% | -19.29% | -21.48% |
| FY2020 | 2021-03-22 | 2021-03-22 | -18.27% | -25.69% | -39.22% | -26.45% | +8.75% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,295 | +0.01% | +43.27% | short | -0.06% | 32 | -0.01 |
| 5d | 2,292 | -0.85% | +41.88% | short | +0.74% | 33 | +0.06 |
| 20d | 2,258 | -1.91% | +41.67% | short | +2.05% | 36 | +0.10 |
| 60d | 2,127 | +0.65% | +44.01% | short | -0.78% | 47 | -0.02 |
| 252d | 2,092 | +14.03% | +44.93% | short | -14.91% | 97 | -0.09 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See capex_spike methodology for the full audit.