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capex_spike on MONOLITHIC POWER SYSTEMS INC (MPWR)
SIC 3674 — Semiconductors & Related Devices · CIK 1280452 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires on >50% YoY capex increase. Captures aggressive reinvestment phases — often precedes value destruction in mature industries.
Every time the signal fired on MPWR
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 | 2025-03-03 | 2025-03-03 | +1.59% | +0.46% | +0.45% | +17.34% | +91.42% |
| FY2019 | 2020-02-28 | 2020-02-28 | +3.45% | +4.68% | +1.93% | +29.55% | +147.35% |
| FY2016 | 2017-03-01 | 2017-03-01 | -0.58% | -1.20% | +2.94% | +9.43% | +30.46% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,295 | +0.01% | +43.27% | short | -0.06% | 32 | -0.01 |
| 5d | 2,292 | -0.85% | +41.88% | short | +0.74% | 33 | +0.06 |
| 20d | 2,258 | -1.91% | +41.67% | short | +2.05% | 36 | +0.10 |
| 60d | 2,127 | +0.65% | +44.01% | short | -0.78% | 47 | -0.02 |
| 252d | 2,092 | +14.03% | +44.93% | short | -14.91% | 97 | -0.09 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See capex_spike methodology for the full audit.