← capex_spike (all companies) · NGS (all signals) · all methodology
capex_spike on NATURAL GAS SERVICES GROUP INC (NGS)
SIC 1389 — Oil & Gas Field Services, NEC · CIK 1084991 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires on >50% YoY capex increase. Captures aggressive reinvestment phases — often precedes value destruction in mature industries.
Every time the signal fired on NGS
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 2026-03-16 | 2026-03-16 | +0.57% | +7.76% | +5.71% | — | — |
| FY2023 | 2024-04-01 | 2024-04-01 | +12.44% | +15.85% | +16.79% | -6.02% | +11.41% |
| FY2022 | 2023-03-31 | 2023-03-31 | +2.33% | +4.36% | +1.55% | -6.98% | +124.44% |
| FY2021 | 2022-03-18 | 2022-03-18 | +2.15% | +13.82% | +25.13% | +16.70% | -13.11% |
| FY2018 | 2019-03-18 | 2019-03-18 | -1.33% | -4.05% | -4.38% | -14.19% | -70.68% |
| FY2017 | 2018-03-09 | 2018-03-09 | +1.28% | -8.38% | -10.75% | -16.94% | -32.57% |
| FY2013 | 2014-03-14 | 2014-03-14 | -3.58% | -3.67% | -2.03% | +2.18% | -41.07% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,295 | +0.01% | +43.27% | short | -0.06% | 32 | -0.01 |
| 5d | 2,292 | -0.85% | +41.88% | short | +0.74% | 33 | +0.06 |
| 20d | 2,258 | -1.91% | +41.67% | short | +2.05% | 36 | +0.10 |
| 60d | 2,127 | +0.65% | +44.01% | short | -0.78% | 47 | -0.02 |
| 252d | 2,092 | +14.03% | +44.93% | short | -14.91% | 97 | -0.09 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See capex_spike methodology for the full audit.