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capex_spike on Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. (OLLI)
SIC 5331 — Retail-Variety Stores · CIK 1639300 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires on >50% YoY capex increase. Captures aggressive reinvestment phases — often precedes value destruction in mature industries.
Every time the signal fired on OLLI
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 | 2025-03-26 | 2025-03-26 | +4.53% | +9.27% | -2.52% | +19.45% | -17.50% |
| FY2019 | 2020-03-25 | 2020-03-25 | +1.75% | +7.87% | +43.96% | +145.00% | +103.98% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,295 | +0.01% | +43.27% | short | -0.06% | 32 | -0.01 |
| 5d | 2,292 | -0.85% | +41.88% | short | +0.74% | 33 | +0.06 |
| 20d | 2,258 | -1.91% | +41.67% | short | +2.05% | 36 | +0.10 |
| 60d | 2,127 | +0.65% | +44.01% | short | -0.78% | 47 | -0.02 |
| 252d | 2,092 | +14.03% | +44.93% | short | -14.91% | 97 | -0.09 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See capex_spike methodology for the full audit.