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dso_drift_severe on CNX Resources Corp (CNX)
SIC 1311 — Crude Petroleum & Natural Gas · CIK 1070412 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires on Days Sales Outstanding rising >25% YoY while revenue grows <10%. Channel-stuffing / receivables-quality precursor.
Every time the signal fired on CNX
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 | 2025-02-11 | 2025-02-11 | +0.07% | +1.54% | -2.35% | +3.79% | +31.62% |
| FY2021 | 2022-02-10 | 2022-02-10 | +3.38% | +5.86% | +19.13% | +20.49% | +5.20% |
| FY2020 | 2021-02-09 | 2021-02-09 | +3.82% | +11.70% | +18.31% | +9.00% | +17.83% |
| FY2016 | 2017-02-08 | 2017-02-08 | -0.06% | -1.44% | -11.37% | -9.12% | -18.94% |
| FY2015 | 2016-02-05 | 2016-02-05 | -6.04% | -14.28% | +28.31% | +60.88% | +90.04% |
| FY2011 | 2012-02-10 | 2012-02-10 | -0.53% | +3.41% | -10.02% | -5.27% | -7.01% |
| FY2009 | 2010-02-09 | 2010-02-09 | -1.59% | +7.71% | +15.34% | -15.24% | +7.14% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,382 | +0.25% | +44.16% | short | -0.49% | 35 | -0.04 |
| 5d | 2,381 | -0.30% | +44.18% | short | +0.11% | 36 | +0.01 |
| 20d | 2,351 | +2.47% | +43.26% | short | -2.54% | 40 | -0.02 |
| 60d | 2,258 | +16.34% | +45.44% | short | -11.34% | 51 | -0.06 |
| 252d | 2,213 | +32.55% | +49.30% | short | -24.65% | 102 | -0.10 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See dso_drift_severe methodology for the full audit.