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dso_drift_severe on LINCOLN EDUCATIONAL SERVICES CORP (LINC)

SIC 8200 — Services-Educational Services · CIK 1286613 · default direction: short

Definition

Fires on Days Sales Outstanding rising >25% YoY while revenue grows <10%. Channel-stuffing / receivables-quality precursor.

Every time the signal fired on LINC

FYFiling dateEvent date1d5d20d60d252d
FY20222023-03-072023-03-07+2.94%-1.80%-9.64%+6.70%+63.24%
FY20202021-03-092021-03-09-0.16%+5.86%+5.05%+22.96%+15.96%
FY20162017-03-102017-03-10+0.44%+16.00%+24.89%+46.67%-18.22%
FY20132014-03-112014-03-11+0.97%-1.69%-5.80%-11.35%-30.94%

Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.

Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)

Horizonn eventsGross stock retHit rateTrade dirNet PnLCost (bps)r/σ net
1d2,382+0.25%+44.16%short-0.49%35-0.04
5d2,381-0.30%+44.18%short+0.11%36+0.01
20d2,351+2.47%+43.26%short-2.54%40-0.02
60d2,258+16.34%+45.44%short-11.34%51-0.06
252d2,213+32.55%+49.30%short-24.65%102-0.10

Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See dso_drift_severe methodology for the full audit.


Data: /api/company/1286613/financials