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dso_drift_severe on Vaxart, Inc. (VXRT)

SIC 2836 — Biological Products, (No Diagnostic Substances) · CIK 72444 · default direction: short

Definition

Fires on Days Sales Outstanding rising >25% YoY while revenue grows <10%. Channel-stuffing / receivables-quality precursor.

Every time the signal fired on VXRT

FYFiling dateEvent date1d5d20d60d252d
FY20222023-03-152023-03-15+3.95%-2.63%-10.53%+11.84%+42.11%
FY20182019-02-062019-02-06-11.50%-13.72%-30.53%-68.14%-54.42%
FY20172017-09-012017-09-01+1.54%-6.15%+13.85%-9.23%-57.62%
FY20112012-03-142012-03-14+0.00%-1.08%+0.00%-10.27%-60.55%

Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.

Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)

Horizonn eventsGross stock retHit rateTrade dirNet PnLCost (bps)r/σ net
1d2,382+0.25%+44.16%short-0.49%35-0.04
5d2,381-0.30%+44.18%short+0.11%36+0.01
20d2,351+2.47%+43.26%short-2.54%40-0.02
60d2,258+16.34%+45.44%short-11.34%51-0.06
252d2,213+32.55%+49.30%short-24.65%102-0.10

Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See dso_drift_severe methodology for the full audit.


Data: /api/company/72444/financials