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fcf_ni_divergence on ASCENT INDUSTRIES CO. (ACNT)
SIC 2800 — Chemicals & Allied Products · CIK 95953 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires when free cash flow diverges substantially from net income — either NI >> FCF (low-quality earnings) or FCF >> NI (under-reported earnings).
Every time the signal fired on ACNT
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 2026-03-03 | 2026-03-03 | -20.60% | -25.20% | -23.42% | — | — |
| FY2018 | 2019-03-18 | 2019-03-18 | -0.90% | -2.77% | -4.52% | +17.87% | -20.97% |
| FY2017 | 2018-03-13 | 2018-03-13 | +2.81% | +2.11% | +9.82% | +36.84% | +6.95% |
| FY2013 | 2014-03-11 | 2014-03-11 | -1.23% | -1.95% | +9.75% | +13.50% | +9.74% |
| FY2012 | 2013-03-12 | 2013-03-12 | -4.75% | -7.61% | -0.70% | -1.12% | -2.91% |
| FY2011 | 2012-03-14 | 2012-03-14 | +3.87% | +10.88% | +1.40% | -5.11% | +11.77% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 1,361 | +0.07% | +48.05% | short | -0.35% | 30 | -0.06 |
| 5d | 1,361 | +0.65% | +47.54% | short | -0.22% | 31 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 1,357 | +0.02% | +46.20% | short | +0.27% | 34 | +0.02 |
| 60d | 1,270 | +2.92% | +51.18% | short | -3.03% | 45 | -0.11 |
| 252d | 1,256 | +13.28% | +52.79% | short | -13.55% | 92 | -0.21 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See fcf_ni_divergence methodology for the full audit.