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fcf_ni_divergence on AIR T INC (AIRT)
SIC 4513 — Air Courier Services · CIK 353184 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires when free cash flow diverges substantially from net income — either NI >> FCF (low-quality earnings) or FCF >> NI (under-reported earnings).
Every time the signal fired on AIRT
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2020 | 2021-06-25 | 2021-06-25 | -3.05% | -1.61% | +19.76% | +59.64% | -35.46% |
| FY2018 | 2019-06-28 | 2019-06-28 | -1.32% | +4.06% | +4.23% | -14.29% | -31.39% |
| FY2014 | 2015-06-08 | 2015-06-08 | +2.55% | +2.92% | +36.39% | +18.30% | +28.65% |
| FY2012 | 2013-06-04 | 2013-06-04 | -0.71% | +2.34% | +2.55% | +8.96% | +20.26% |
| FY2011 | 2012-06-05 | 2012-06-05 | -2.71% | -3.06% | +1.30% | +1.53% | +22.96% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 1,361 | +0.07% | +48.05% | short | -0.35% | 30 | -0.06 |
| 5d | 1,361 | +0.65% | +47.54% | short | -0.22% | 31 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 1,357 | +0.02% | +46.20% | short | +0.27% | 34 | +0.02 |
| 60d | 1,270 | +2.92% | +51.18% | short | -3.03% | 45 | -0.11 |
| 252d | 1,256 | +13.28% | +52.79% | short | -13.55% | 92 | -0.21 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See fcf_ni_divergence methodology for the full audit.