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fcf_ni_divergence on Ameresco, Inc. (AMRC)
SIC 1700 — Construction - Special Trade Contractors · CIK 1488139 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires when free cash flow diverges substantially from net income — either NI >> FCF (low-quality earnings) or FCF >> NI (under-reported earnings).
Every time the signal fired on AMRC
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2023 | 2024-02-29 | 2024-02-29 | -6.77% | -3.10% | +15.12% | +62.02% | -54.25% |
| FY2022 | 2023-02-28 | 2023-02-28 | +6.23% | +4.00% | +3.44% | +0.89% | -52.31% |
| FY2021 | 2022-03-01 | 2022-03-01 | +0.86% | +19.43% | +29.86% | -15.21% | -31.12% |
| FY2020 | 2021-03-02 | 2021-03-02 | -6.52% | -24.29% | -21.26% | -5.57% | +13.24% |
| FY2019 | 2020-03-04 | 2020-03-04 | -2.72% | -19.69% | -31.13% | -7.34% | +107.90% |
| FY2018 | 2019-03-08 | 2019-03-08 | -0.49% | +6.22% | +1.36% | -9.43% | +27.66% |
| FY2017 | 2018-03-07 | 2018-03-07 | +1.01% | +15.58% | +30.15% | +20.60% | +63.12% |
| FY2016 | 2017-03-03 | 2017-03-03 | +0.83% | -6.67% | +9.17% | +10.00% | +39.17% |
| FY2015 | 2016-03-04 | 2016-03-04 | +2.18% | -2.38% | -7.34% | -7.14% | +20.04% |
| FY2013 | 2014-03-17 | 2014-03-17 | +0.53% | +4.81% | -6.42% | -4.81% | -5.88% |
| FY2011 | 2012-03-15 | 2012-03-15 | +0.28% | -3.22% | -10.44% | -22.49% | -50.11% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 1,361 | +0.07% | +48.05% | short | -0.35% | 30 | -0.06 |
| 5d | 1,361 | +0.65% | +47.54% | short | -0.22% | 31 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 1,357 | +0.02% | +46.20% | short | +0.27% | 34 | +0.02 |
| 60d | 1,270 | +2.92% | +51.18% | short | -3.03% | 45 | -0.11 |
| 252d | 1,256 | +13.28% | +52.79% | short | -13.55% | 92 | -0.21 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See fcf_ni_divergence methodology for the full audit.