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fcf_ni_divergence on Andersons, Inc. (ANDE)
SIC 5150 — Wholesale-Farm Product Raw Materials · CIK 821026 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires when free cash flow diverges substantially from net income — either NI >> FCF (low-quality earnings) or FCF >> NI (under-reported earnings).
Every time the signal fired on ANDE
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 2026-02-18 | 2026-02-18 | +0.34% | -0.39% | +7.47% | — | — |
| FY2021 | 2022-02-24 | 2022-02-24 | +3.32% | +13.56% | +21.92% | -17.30% | +8.78% |
| FY2020 | 2021-02-25 | 2021-02-25 | -3.54% | -4.72% | +2.62% | +12.81% | +60.23% |
| FY2018 | 2019-02-27 | 2019-02-27 | -0.22% | -5.16% | -11.88% | -26.05% | -49.16% |
| FY2016 | 2017-03-01 | 2017-03-01 | -2.97% | -7.30% | -4.08% | -12.88% | -10.85% |
| FY2014 | 2015-03-02 | 2015-03-02 | -0.04% | -7.86% | -8.41% | +0.02% | -37.48% |
| FY2010 | 2011-03-01 | 2011-03-01 | -0.86% | +1.76% | -2.59% | -10.60% | -8.79% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 1,361 | +0.07% | +48.05% | short | -0.35% | 30 | -0.06 |
| 5d | 1,361 | +0.65% | +47.54% | short | -0.22% | 31 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 1,357 | +0.02% | +46.20% | short | +0.27% | 34 | +0.02 |
| 60d | 1,270 | +2.92% | +51.18% | short | -3.03% | 45 | -0.11 |
| 252d | 1,256 | +13.28% | +52.79% | short | -13.55% | 92 | -0.21 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See fcf_ni_divergence methodology for the full audit.