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fcf_ni_divergence on BLACK HILLS CORP /SD/ (BKH)
SIC 4911 — Electric Services · CIK 1130464 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires when free cash flow diverges substantially from net income — either NI >> FCF (low-quality earnings) or FCF >> NI (under-reported earnings).
Every time the signal fired on BKH
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 2026-02-11 | 2026-02-11 | +0.83% | +1.63% | -1.77% | — | — |
| FY2021 | 2022-02-15 | 2022-02-15 | +0.92% | +0.65% | +7.40% | +11.79% | -0.41% |
| FY2020 | 2021-02-26 | 2021-02-26 | +1.18% | +5.73% | +12.73% | +12.57% | +22.25% |
| FY2019 | 2020-02-14 | 2020-02-14 | +0.21% | -2.73% | -36.65% | -32.00% | -25.69% |
| FY2016 | 2017-02-27 | 2017-02-27 | +0.09% | -0.45% | +2.34% | +6.37% | -17.96% |
| FY2014 | 2015-08-07 | 2015-08-07 | -0.31% | +1.91% | -8.82% | +11.79% | +47.12% |
| FY2011 | 2012-02-29 | 2012-02-29 | -0.37% | +0.70% | +2.41% | -2.30% | +34.00% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 1,361 | +0.07% | +48.05% | short | -0.35% | 30 | -0.06 |
| 5d | 1,361 | +0.65% | +47.54% | short | -0.22% | 31 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 1,357 | +0.02% | +46.20% | short | +0.27% | 34 | +0.02 |
| 60d | 1,270 | +2.92% | +51.18% | short | -3.03% | 45 | -0.11 |
| 252d | 1,256 | +13.28% | +52.79% | short | -13.55% | 92 | -0.21 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See fcf_ni_divergence methodology for the full audit.