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fcf_ni_divergence on Century Communities, Inc. (CCS)
SIC 1531 — Operative Builders · CIK 1576940 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires when free cash flow diverges substantially from net income — either NI >> FCF (low-quality earnings) or FCF >> NI (under-reported earnings).
Every time the signal fired on CCS
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2019 | 2020-02-07 | 2020-02-07 | +3.31% | +4.80% | -16.13% | -39.42% | +70.62% |
| FY2018 | 2019-02-13 | 2019-02-13 | -3.93% | -1.45% | -2.89% | +13.43% | +54.42% |
| FY2017 | 2018-03-01 | 2018-03-01 | +1.85% | +1.34% | +0.50% | +2.85% | -21.64% |
| FY2016 | 2017-02-15 | 2017-02-15 | +0.21% | -2.36% | +8.58% | +10.09% | +36.91% |
| FY2015 | 2016-02-19 | 2016-02-19 | +2.03% | +8.60% | +18.73% | +19.57% | +60.38% |
| FY2014 | 2015-03-06 | 2015-03-06 | +8.28% | +5.44% | +9.67% | +10.39% | -11.22% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 1,361 | +0.07% | +48.05% | short | -0.35% | 30 | -0.06 |
| 5d | 1,361 | +0.65% | +47.54% | short | -0.22% | 31 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 1,357 | +0.02% | +46.20% | short | +0.27% | 34 | +0.02 |
| 60d | 1,270 | +2.92% | +51.18% | short | -3.03% | 45 | -0.11 |
| 252d | 1,256 | +13.28% | +52.79% | short | -13.55% | 92 | -0.21 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See fcf_ni_divergence methodology for the full audit.