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fcf_ni_divergence on CHESAPEAKE UTILITIES CORP (CPK)
SIC 4923 — Natural Gas Transmisison & Distribution · CIK 19745 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires when free cash flow diverges substantially from net income — either NI >> FCF (low-quality earnings) or FCF >> NI (under-reported earnings).
Every time the signal fired on CPK
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 2026-02-25 | 2026-02-25 | +0.28% | +2.55% | -7.56% | — | — |
| FY2024 | 2025-02-26 | 2025-02-26 | -0.16% | +0.05% | -1.04% | -3.90% | +9.78% |
| FY2019 | 2020-02-26 | 2020-02-26 | -5.23% | +0.83% | -16.86% | -5.48% | +14.44% |
| FY2018 | 2019-02-27 | 2019-02-27 | -0.38% | +0.55% | +2.96% | +4.73% | +1.28% |
| FY2017 | 2018-03-01 | 2018-03-01 | -0.94% | +0.36% | +2.28% | +14.28% | +36.49% |
| FY2016 | 2017-02-28 | 2017-02-28 | +0.29% | +0.65% | +0.89% | +7.38% | -1.68% |
| FY2015 | 2016-02-29 | 2016-02-29 | -1.30% | -3.42% | +2.37% | -5.41% | +12.85% |
| FY2013 | 2014-03-06 | 2014-03-06 | -0.61% | +3.27% | +6.30% | +10.09% | +17.84% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 1,361 | +0.07% | +48.05% | short | -0.35% | 30 | -0.06 |
| 5d | 1,361 | +0.65% | +47.54% | short | -0.22% | 31 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 1,357 | +0.02% | +46.20% | short | +0.27% | 34 | +0.02 |
| 60d | 1,270 | +2.92% | +51.18% | short | -3.03% | 45 | -0.11 |
| 252d | 1,256 | +13.28% | +52.79% | short | -13.55% | 92 | -0.21 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See fcf_ni_divergence methodology for the full audit.