← fcf_ni_divergence (all companies) · CVLG (all signals) · all methodology
fcf_ni_divergence on COVENANT LOGISTICS GROUP, INC. (CVLG)
SIC 4213 — Trucking (No Local) · CIK 928658 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires when free cash flow diverges substantially from net income — either NI >> FCF (low-quality earnings) or FCF >> NI (under-reported earnings).
Every time the signal fired on CVLG
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 2026-02-27 | 2026-02-27 | +0.92% | -10.41% | -9.50% | — | — |
| FY2024 | 2025-02-28 | 2025-02-28 | -0.32% | -1.47% | -11.55% | -8.88% | +18.58% |
| FY2023 | 2024-02-28 | 2024-02-28 | -1.00% | -6.12% | -6.65% | -5.35% | +2.71% |
| FY2019 | 2020-03-09 | 2020-03-09 | +11.33% | -0.76% | -28.57% | +25.81% | +91.43% |
| FY2017 | 2018-02-28 | 2018-02-28 | +1.16% | +2.25% | +14.33% | +19.75% | -11.00% |
| FY2016 | 2017-03-14 | 2017-03-14 | +3.17% | -4.62% | -2.36% | -0.05% | +44.50% |
| FY2015 | 2016-02-29 | 2016-02-29 | +0.95% | -1.17% | +16.11% | -10.88% | -9.57% |
| FY2014 | 2015-03-03 | 2015-03-03 | -0.88% | +0.39% | +7.70% | +3.51% | -28.32% |
| FY2013 | 2014-03-18 | 2014-03-18 | +1.16% | -0.09% | -12.83% | +7.22% | +208.38% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 1,361 | +0.07% | +48.05% | short | -0.35% | 30 | -0.06 |
| 5d | 1,361 | +0.65% | +47.54% | short | -0.22% | 31 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 1,357 | +0.02% | +46.20% | short | +0.27% | 34 | +0.02 |
| 60d | 1,270 | +2.92% | +51.18% | short | -3.03% | 45 | -0.11 |
| 252d | 1,256 | +13.28% | +52.79% | short | -13.55% | 92 | -0.21 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See fcf_ni_divergence methodology for the full audit.