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fcf_ni_divergence on eHealth, Inc. (EHTH)
SIC 6411 — Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service · CIK 1333493 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires when free cash flow diverges substantially from net income — either NI >> FCF (low-quality earnings) or FCF >> NI (under-reported earnings).
Every time the signal fired on EHTH
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 2026-02-26 | 2026-02-26 | -2.26% | +27.07% | -1.50% | — | — |
| FY2024 | 2025-02-27 | 2025-02-27 | -0.90% | -6.75% | -21.93% | -51.07% | -86.05% |
| FY2020 | 2021-02-26 | 2021-02-26 | -1.67% | -10.80% | +17.87% | +10.03% | -74.27% |
| FY2019 | 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-02 | -3.21% | +5.56% | +14.64% | -2.17% | -54.62% |
| FY2018 | 2019-03-14 | 2019-03-14 | +4.94% | +11.43% | +23.97% | +30.74% | +117.12% |
| FY2017 | 2018-03-19 | 2018-03-19 | -2.74% | -4.77% | +2.42% | +49.74% | +271.41% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 1,361 | +0.07% | +48.05% | short | -0.35% | 30 | -0.06 |
| 5d | 1,361 | +0.65% | +47.54% | short | -0.22% | 31 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 1,357 | +0.02% | +46.20% | short | +0.27% | 34 | +0.02 |
| 60d | 1,270 | +2.92% | +51.18% | short | -3.03% | 45 | -0.11 |
| 252d | 1,256 | +13.28% | +52.79% | short | -13.55% | 92 | -0.21 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See fcf_ni_divergence methodology for the full audit.