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fcf_ni_divergence on EXELON CORP (EXC)
SIC 4931 — Electric & Other Services Combined · CIK 1109357 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires when free cash flow diverges substantially from net income — either NI >> FCF (low-quality earnings) or FCF >> NI (under-reported earnings).
Every time the signal fired on EXC
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 2026-02-12 | 2026-02-12 | +1.96% | +0.50% | +5.67% | — | — |
| FY2024 | 2025-02-12 | 2025-02-12 | +0.19% | +0.65% | +2.30% | +6.39% | +17.14% |
| FY2023 | 2024-02-21 | 2024-02-21 | -0.50% | -1.13% | +2.05% | +8.88% | +25.87% |
| FY2022 | 2023-02-14 | 2023-02-14 | +1.52% | -0.45% | +0.41% | +1.95% | -14.07% |
| FY2021 | 2022-02-25 | 2022-02-25 | -0.09% | +3.94% | +6.83% | +13.22% | -2.12% |
| FY2020 | 2021-02-24 | 2021-02-24 | -3.16% | -1.64% | +7.86% | +15.95% | +47.81% |
| FY2014 | 2015-02-13 | 2015-02-13 | -1.25% | +0.81% | -2.45% | +0.42% | -3.70% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 1,361 | +0.07% | +48.05% | short | -0.35% | 30 | -0.06 |
| 5d | 1,361 | +0.65% | +47.54% | short | -0.22% | 31 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 1,357 | +0.02% | +46.20% | short | +0.27% | 34 | +0.02 |
| 60d | 1,270 | +2.92% | +51.18% | short | -3.03% | 45 | -0.11 |
| 252d | 1,256 | +13.28% | +52.79% | short | -13.55% | 92 | -0.21 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See fcf_ni_divergence methodology for the full audit.