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fcf_ni_divergence on GATX CORP (GATX)
SIC 4700 — Transportation Services · CIK 40211 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires when free cash flow diverges substantially from net income — either NI >> FCF (low-quality earnings) or FCF >> NI (under-reported earnings).
Every time the signal fired on GATX
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2023 | 2024-02-16 | 2024-02-16 | -0.97% | -1.10% | +2.99% | +8.13% | +31.86% |
| FY2022 | 2023-02-16 | 2023-02-16 | +0.11% | -1.67% | -8.05% | +1.35% | +15.72% |
| FY2021 | 2022-02-17 | 2022-02-17 | -0.03% | +1.34% | +17.34% | +5.05% | +3.73% |
| FY2020 | 2021-02-18 | 2021-02-18 | +3.23% | +0.26% | -5.37% | +5.90% | +14.26% |
| FY2019 | 2020-02-19 | 2020-02-19 | +2.44% | -4.36% | -30.00% | -30.20% | +26.64% |
| FY2018 | 2019-02-25 | 2019-02-25 | -0.41% | -0.79% | -7.87% | -1.88% | -2.09% |
| FY2015 | 2016-02-24 | 2016-02-24 | -0.38% | +9.14% | +12.62% | +4.06% | +43.66% |
| FY2014 | 2015-02-25 | 2015-02-25 | +0.21% | -3.06% | -5.92% | -11.60% | -31.65% |
| FY2013 | 2014-02-25 | 2014-02-25 | +1.73% | +4.12% | +10.44% | +0.96% | +2.42% |
| FY2012 | 2013-03-01 | 2013-03-01 | +0.38% | +2.35% | +3.32% | +4.38% | +32.49% |
| FY2011 | 2012-03-07 | 2012-03-07 | +2.06% | +0.82% | -4.01% | -13.08% | +22.64% |
| FY2010 | 2011-02-23 | 2011-02-23 | -1.86% | -1.65% | +6.12% | +13.96% | +28.31% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 1,361 | +0.07% | +48.05% | short | -0.35% | 30 | -0.06 |
| 5d | 1,361 | +0.65% | +47.54% | short | -0.22% | 31 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 1,357 | +0.02% | +46.20% | short | +0.27% | 34 | +0.02 |
| 60d | 1,270 | +2.92% | +51.18% | short | -3.03% | 45 | -0.11 |
| 252d | 1,256 | +13.28% | +52.79% | short | -13.55% | 92 | -0.21 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See fcf_ni_divergence methodology for the full audit.