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fcf_ni_divergence on EASTMAN KODAK CO (KODK)
SIC 3861 — Photographic Equipment & Supplies · CIK 31235 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires when free cash flow diverges substantially from net income — either NI >> FCF (low-quality earnings) or FCF >> NI (under-reported earnings).
Every time the signal fired on KODK
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 | 2025-03-17 | 2025-03-17 | -6.45% | -7.02% | -9.03% | -15.90% | +13.61% |
| FY2022 | 2023-03-16 | 2023-03-16 | +10.00% | +10.29% | +7.65% | +55.29% | +41.47% |
| FY2021 | 2022-03-15 | 2022-03-15 | +6.19% | +42.62% | +46.67% | +15.24% | -19.05% |
| FY2017 | 2018-03-15 | 2018-03-15 | +13.13% | +4.04% | +5.05% | +5.05% | -29.09% |
| FY2016 | 2017-03-07 | 2017-03-07 | -8.87% | -16.31% | -18.79% | -29.08% | -62.06% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 1,361 | +0.07% | +48.05% | short | -0.35% | 30 | -0.06 |
| 5d | 1,361 | +0.65% | +47.54% | short | -0.22% | 31 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 1,357 | +0.02% | +46.20% | short | +0.27% | 34 | +0.02 |
| 60d | 1,270 | +2.92% | +51.18% | short | -3.03% | 45 | -0.11 |
| 252d | 1,256 | +13.28% | +52.79% | short | -13.55% | 92 | -0.21 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See fcf_ni_divergence methodology for the full audit.