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fcf_ni_divergence on KEY TRONIC CORP (KTCC)
SIC 3672 — Printed Circuit Boards · CIK 719733 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires when free cash flow diverges substantially from net income — either NI >> FCF (low-quality earnings) or FCF >> NI (under-reported earnings).
Every time the signal fired on KTCC
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2023 | 2023-09-26 | 2023-09-26 | +0.46% | +0.00% | -7.16% | -3.46% | +38.57% |
| FY2022 | 2022-09-14 | 2022-09-14 | +1.38% | +1.61% | -5.76% | +9.45% | +2.76% |
| FY2021 | 2021-09-16 | 2021-09-16 | +6.44% | +0.92% | -1.07% | -3.68% | -34.36% |
| FY2020 | 2020-09-11 | 2020-09-11 | +1.54% | +15.53% | +23.11% | -2.18% | -16.43% |
| FY2017 | 2017-09-11 | 2017-09-11 | -0.58% | +0.15% | +0.87% | +0.29% | +9.46% |
| FY2016 | 2016-09-09 | 2016-09-09 | +1.64% | +1.09% | +6.28% | +6.01% | -6.15% |
| FY2014 | 2014-09-05 | 2014-09-05 | -1.03% | -1.41% | -0.66% | -24.79% | -6.10% |
| FY2012 | 2012-09-10 | 2012-09-10 | +3.05% | +1.11% | -8.23% | -8.42% | -10.82% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 1,361 | +0.07% | +48.05% | short | -0.35% | 30 | -0.06 |
| 5d | 1,361 | +0.65% | +47.54% | short | -0.22% | 31 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 1,357 | +0.02% | +46.20% | short | +0.27% | 34 | +0.02 |
| 60d | 1,270 | +2.92% | +51.18% | short | -3.03% | 45 | -0.11 |
| 252d | 1,256 | +13.28% | +52.79% | short | -13.55% | 92 | -0.21 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See fcf_ni_divergence methodology for the full audit.