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fcf_ni_divergence on LINCOLN EDUCATIONAL SERVICES CORP (LINC)
SIC 8200 — Services-Educational Services · CIK 1286613 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires when free cash flow diverges substantially from net income — either NI >> FCF (low-quality earnings) or FCF >> NI (under-reported earnings).
Every time the signal fired on LINC
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 2026-03-02 | 2026-03-02 | +0.52% | -1.66% | +9.12% | — | — |
| FY2024 | 2025-03-04 | 2025-03-04 | -1.52% | -12.58% | -8.80% | +31.26% | +102.82% |
| FY2023 | 2024-03-05 | 2024-03-05 | +2.54% | +1.12% | +2.23% | +19.70% | +60.41% |
| FY2022 | 2023-03-07 | 2023-03-07 | +2.94% | -1.80% | -9.64% | +6.70% | +63.24% |
| FY2019 | 2020-03-06 | 2020-03-06 | -3.41% | -16.67% | -12.88% | +51.52% | +125.38% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 1,361 | +0.07% | +48.05% | short | -0.35% | 30 | -0.06 |
| 5d | 1,361 | +0.65% | +47.54% | short | -0.22% | 31 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 1,357 | +0.02% | +46.20% | short | +0.27% | 34 | +0.02 |
| 60d | 1,270 | +2.92% | +51.18% | short | -3.03% | 45 | -0.11 |
| 252d | 1,256 | +13.28% | +52.79% | short | -13.55% | 92 | -0.21 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See fcf_ni_divergence methodology for the full audit.