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fcf_ni_divergence on Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH)
SIC 4400 — Water Transportation · CIK 1513761 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires when free cash flow diverges substantially from net income — either NI >> FCF (low-quality earnings) or FCF >> NI (under-reported earnings).
Every time the signal fired on NCLH
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 2026-03-02 | 2026-03-02 | -4.10% | -6.63% | -20.42% | — | — |
| FY2023 | 2024-02-28 | 2024-02-28 | +3.69% | +7.11% | +14.12% | -16.74% | +17.38% |
| FY2014 | 2015-02-27 | 2015-02-27 | +3.04% | +1.46% | +9.12% | +10.58% | -0.39% |
| FY2013 | 2014-02-21 | 2014-02-21 | -0.47% | +0.00% | -2.28% | -3.18% | +39.66% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 1,361 | +0.07% | +48.05% | short | -0.35% | 30 | -0.06 |
| 5d | 1,361 | +0.65% | +47.54% | short | -0.22% | 31 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 1,357 | +0.02% | +46.20% | short | +0.27% | 34 | +0.02 |
| 60d | 1,270 | +2.92% | +51.18% | short | -3.03% | 45 | -0.11 |
| 252d | 1,256 | +13.28% | +52.79% | short | -13.55% | 92 | -0.21 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See fcf_ni_divergence methodology for the full audit.