← fcf_ni_divergence (all companies) · NFLX (all signals) · all methodology
fcf_ni_divergence on NETFLIX INC (NFLX)
SIC 7841 — Services-Video Tape Rental · CIK 1065280 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires when free cash flow diverges substantially from net income — either NI >> FCF (low-quality earnings) or FCF >> NI (under-reported earnings).
Every time the signal fired on NFLX
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2019 | 2020-01-29 | 2020-01-29 | +1.33% | +7.73% | +8.32% | +23.85% | +56.95% |
| FY2018 | 2019-01-29 | 2019-01-29 | +3.58% | +8.18% | +10.33% | +11.99% | +4.34% |
| FY2017 | 2018-02-05 | 2018-02-05 | +4.51% | +1.45% | +27.91% | +23.24% | +38.52% |
| FY2016 | 2017-01-27 | 2017-01-27 | -0.86% | -1.54% | +0.67% | +6.82% | +99.78% |
| FY2015 | 2016-01-28 | 2016-01-28 | -2.72% | -4.98% | +0.40% | -0.90% | +50.88% |
| FY2012 | 2013-02-01 | 2013-02-01 | +6.03% | +9.81% | +9.96% | +31.11% | +145.38% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 1,361 | +0.07% | +48.05% | short | -0.35% | 30 | -0.06 |
| 5d | 1,361 | +0.65% | +47.54% | short | -0.22% | 31 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 1,357 | +0.02% | +46.20% | short | +0.27% | 34 | +0.02 |
| 60d | 1,270 | +2.92% | +51.18% | short | -3.03% | 45 | -0.11 |
| 252d | 1,256 | +13.28% | +52.79% | short | -13.55% | 92 | -0.21 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See fcf_ni_divergence methodology for the full audit.