← fcf_ni_divergence (all companies) · NI (all signals) · all methodology
fcf_ni_divergence on NISOURCE INC. (NI)
SIC 4931 — Electric & Other Services Combined · CIK 1111711 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires when free cash flow diverges substantially from net income — either NI >> FCF (low-quality earnings) or FCF >> NI (under-reported earnings).
Every time the signal fired on NI
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 | 2025-02-12 | 2025-02-12 | +2.06% | +3.04% | -0.34% | +2.73% | +22.78% |
| FY2023 | 2024-02-21 | 2024-02-21 | -0.80% | -1.52% | +2.32% | +12.11% | +57.23% |
| FY2022 | 2023-02-22 | 2023-02-22 | +1.05% | -2.83% | -4.49% | -0.02% | -1.74% |
| FY2021 | 2022-02-23 | 2022-02-23 | +0.43% | +3.47% | +7.23% | +8.29% | +2.07% |
| FY2019 | 2020-02-28 | 2020-02-28 | +5.70% | +9.03% | -8.36% | -12.75% | -15.66% |
| FY2017 | 2018-02-20 | 2018-02-20 | -0.96% | +1.30% | +0.70% | +6.85% | +18.43% |
| FY2016 | 2017-05-08 | 2017-05-08 | -1.15% | +0.57% | +7.71% | +10.12% | +6.07% |
| FY2012 | 2013-02-19 | 2013-02-19 | -0.81% | -0.40% | +3.93% | +9.61% | +33.95% |
| FY2011 | 2012-02-24 | 2012-02-24 | -0.55% | +0.04% | +1.44% | +5.76% | +20.19% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 1,361 | +0.07% | +48.05% | short | -0.35% | 30 | -0.06 |
| 5d | 1,361 | +0.65% | +47.54% | short | -0.22% | 31 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 1,357 | +0.02% | +46.20% | short | +0.27% | 34 | +0.02 |
| 60d | 1,270 | +2.92% | +51.18% | short | -3.03% | 45 | -0.11 |
| 252d | 1,256 | +13.28% | +52.79% | short | -13.55% | 92 | -0.21 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See fcf_ni_divergence methodology for the full audit.