← fcf_ni_divergence (all companies) · NWN (all signals) · all methodology
fcf_ni_divergence on Northwest Natural Holding Co (NWN)
SIC 4924 — Natural Gas Distribution · CIK 1733998 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires when free cash flow diverges substantially from net income — either NI >> FCF (low-quality earnings) or FCF >> NI (under-reported earnings).
Every time the signal fired on NWN
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 2026-02-27 | 2026-02-27 | -0.85% | -1.77% | -0.40% | — | — |
| FY2024 | 2025-02-28 | 2025-02-28 | +3.64% | +2.57% | +4.28% | +2.44% | +34.29% |
| FY2023 | 2024-02-23 | 2024-02-23 | +2.09% | +3.01% | +0.11% | +9.37% | +22.38% |
| FY2022 | 2023-02-24 | 2023-02-24 | +0.36% | +1.45% | -2.46% | -5.07% | -19.41% |
| FY2021 | 2022-02-25 | 2022-02-25 | +4.65% | +12.64% | +10.76% | +6.64% | +1.13% |
| FY2020 | 2021-02-26 | 2021-02-26 | +0.54% | +7.75% | +9.67% | +12.44% | +7.65% |
| FY2019 | 2020-03-02 | 2020-03-02 | -1.89% | -0.98% | -1.80% | -1.22% | -25.14% |
| FY2018 | 2019-03-01 | 2019-03-01 | +0.97% | -1.09% | +1.12% | +7.53% | +4.91% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 1,361 | +0.07% | +48.05% | short | -0.35% | 30 | -0.06 |
| 5d | 1,361 | +0.65% | +47.54% | short | -0.22% | 31 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 1,357 | +0.02% | +46.20% | short | +0.27% | 34 | +0.02 |
| 60d | 1,270 | +2.92% | +51.18% | short | -3.03% | 45 | -0.11 |
| 252d | 1,256 | +13.28% | +52.79% | short | -13.55% | 92 | -0.21 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See fcf_ni_divergence methodology for the full audit.