← fcf_ni_divergence (all companies) · OPY (all signals) · all methodology
fcf_ni_divergence on OPPENHEIMER HOLDINGS INC (OPY)
SIC 6211 — Security Brokers, Dealers & Flotation Companies · CIK 791963 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires when free cash flow diverges substantially from net income — either NI >> FCF (low-quality earnings) or FCF >> NI (under-reported earnings).
Every time the signal fired on OPY
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 | 2025-02-27 | 2025-02-27 | +0.95% | -3.58% | -6.73% | -1.87% | +41.53% |
| FY2023 | 2024-03-01 | 2024-03-01 | -0.88% | +1.24% | +1.68% | +18.64% | +66.33% |
| FY2017 | 2018-03-02 | 2018-03-02 | +0.57% | +3.96% | -5.66% | +7.01% | +10.02% |
| FY2015 | 2016-03-04 | 2016-03-04 | +0.13% | -2.59% | -5.06% | +0.31% | +8.42% |
| FY2013 | 2014-03-07 | 2014-03-07 | -1.67% | -11.59% | -7.82% | -22.42% | -26.57% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 1,361 | +0.07% | +48.05% | short | -0.35% | 30 | -0.06 |
| 5d | 1,361 | +0.65% | +47.54% | short | -0.22% | 31 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 1,357 | +0.02% | +46.20% | short | +0.27% | 34 | +0.02 |
| 60d | 1,270 | +2.92% | +51.18% | short | -3.03% | 45 | -0.11 |
| 252d | 1,256 | +13.28% | +52.79% | short | -13.55% | 92 | -0.21 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See fcf_ni_divergence methodology for the full audit.