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fcf_ni_divergence on TEJON RANCH CO (TRC)
SIC 6500 — Real Estate · CIK 96869 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires when free cash flow diverges substantially from net income — either NI >> FCF (low-quality earnings) or FCF >> NI (under-reported earnings).
Every time the signal fired on TRC
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 | 2025-03-06 | 2025-03-06 | +1.43% | -0.19% | -1.68% | -1.43% | +11.54% |
| FY2023 | 2024-03-06 | 2024-03-06 | -0.72% | -2.65% | -8.84% | +9.69% | -4.57% |
| FY2022 | 2023-03-08 | 2023-03-08 | -3.24% | -6.63% | -9.00% | -7.56% | -14.40% |
| FY2019 | 2020-03-10 | 2020-03-10 | -2.35% | -4.08% | -8.15% | +3.04% | +18.66% |
| FY2018 | 2019-03-01 | 2019-03-01 | +0.33% | -4.03% | -4.09% | -10.84% | -17.82% |
| FY2016 | 2017-03-13 | 2017-03-13 | +0.05% | -0.18% | +0.72% | -7.99% | +12.48% |
| FY2015 | 2016-03-08 | 2016-03-08 | +1.38% | +0.61% | +6.60% | +24.21% | +11.57% |
| FY2014 | 2015-03-16 | 2015-03-16 | -1.20% | +9.80% | +4.80% | +5.75% | -18.69% |
| FY2013 | 2014-03-17 | 2014-03-17 | +2.43% | +0.44% | -7.34% | -10.41% | -30.15% |
| FY2012 | 2013-03-15 | 2013-03-15 | -0.47% | +1.00% | -8.72% | -0.07% | +17.42% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 1,361 | +0.07% | +48.05% | short | -0.35% | 30 | -0.06 |
| 5d | 1,361 | +0.65% | +47.54% | short | -0.22% | 31 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 1,357 | +0.02% | +46.20% | short | +0.27% | 34 | +0.02 |
| 60d | 1,270 | +2.92% | +51.18% | short | -3.03% | 45 | -0.11 |
| 252d | 1,256 | +13.28% | +52.79% | short | -13.55% | 92 | -0.21 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See fcf_ni_divergence methodology for the full audit.