← fcf_ni_divergence (all companies) · UHAL (all signals) · all methodology
fcf_ni_divergence on U-Haul Holding Co /NV/ (UHAL)
SIC 7510 — Services-Auto Rental & Leasing (No Drivers) · CIK 4457 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires when free cash flow diverges substantially from net income — either NI >> FCF (low-quality earnings) or FCF >> NI (under-reported earnings).
Every time the signal fired on UHAL
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2024 | 2025-05-29 | 2025-05-29 | +1.22% | -0.59% | -3.61% | -9.30% | — |
| FY2023 | 2024-05-30 | 2024-05-30 | +1.56% | +3.15% | -0.85% | +12.85% | +1.90% |
| FY2020 | 2021-05-26 | 2021-05-26 | -1.34% | -0.89% | -2.07% | +12.26% | -11.47% |
| FY2019 | 2020-05-27 | 2020-05-27 | +0.47% | -3.15% | -10.53% | +7.57% | +75.64% |
| FY2018 | 2019-05-29 | 2019-05-29 | -2.09% | +0.63% | -2.49% | -11.22% | -14.25% |
| FY2017 | 2018-05-30 | 2018-05-30 | -9.43% | -5.01% | -0.11% | +6.87% | +3.85% |
| FY2016 | 2017-05-24 | 2017-05-24 | -10.09% | -6.06% | -12.73% | -9.08% | -9.07% |
| FY2015 | 2016-05-25 | 2016-05-25 | +0.30% | +0.97% | +1.72% | -5.98% | -4.67% |
| FY2014 | 2015-05-27 | 2015-05-27 | +2.85% | +1.63% | +0.73% | +14.48% | +16.01% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 1,361 | +0.07% | +48.05% | short | -0.35% | 30 | -0.06 |
| 5d | 1,361 | +0.65% | +47.54% | short | -0.22% | 31 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 1,357 | +0.02% | +46.20% | short | +0.27% | 34 | +0.02 |
| 60d | 1,270 | +2.92% | +51.18% | short | -3.03% | 45 | -0.11 |
| 252d | 1,256 | +13.28% | +52.79% | short | -13.55% | 92 | -0.21 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See fcf_ni_divergence methodology for the full audit.