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fcf_ni_divergence on UWM Holdings Corp (UWMC)
SIC 6162 — Mortgage Bankers & Loan Correspondents · CIK 1783398 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires when free cash flow diverges substantially from net income — either NI >> FCF (low-quality earnings) or FCF >> NI (under-reported earnings).
Every time the signal fired on UWMC
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 | 2026-02-25 | 2026-02-25 | +9.38% | +0.48% | -12.78% | — | — |
| FY2024 | 2025-02-26 | 2025-02-26 | -1.94% | +3.87% | -7.17% | -32.59% | -23.08% |
| FY2021 | 2022-03-01 | 2022-03-01 | +0.87% | -6.71% | +0.96% | -12.55% | +15.16% |
| FY2019 | 2020-03-27 | 2020-05-01 | +4.91% | +2.25% | +2.66% | +7.98% | -18.22% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 1,361 | +0.07% | +48.05% | short | -0.35% | 30 | -0.06 |
| 5d | 1,361 | +0.65% | +47.54% | short | -0.22% | 31 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 1,357 | +0.02% | +46.20% | short | +0.27% | 34 | +0.02 |
| 60d | 1,270 | +2.92% | +51.18% | short | -3.03% | 45 | -0.11 |
| 252d | 1,256 | +13.28% | +52.79% | short | -13.55% | 92 | -0.21 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See fcf_ni_divergence methodology for the full audit.