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fcf_ni_divergence on VIASAT INC (VSAT)
SIC 4899 — Communications Services, NEC · CIK 797721 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires when free cash flow diverges substantially from net income — either NI >> FCF (low-quality earnings) or FCF >> NI (under-reported earnings).
Every time the signal fired on VSAT
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2023 | 2024-05-29 | 2024-05-29 | +4.43% | +1.20% | -18.29% | +8.48% | -42.15% |
| FY2021 | 2022-05-31 | 2022-05-31 | -2.86% | -4.25% | -22.31% | +2.00% | +16.21% |
| FY2020 | 2021-05-28 | 2021-05-28 | -0.30% | -1.54% | -5.72% | -0.60% | -21.46% |
| FY2017 | 2018-05-30 | 2018-05-30 | -2.43% | -0.55% | -0.97% | -2.51% | +35.62% |
| FY2012 | 2013-05-24 | 2013-05-24 | -0.99% | -0.21% | -3.44% | -5.70% | -23.22% |
| FY2011 | 2012-05-25 | 2012-05-25 | +0.45% | -4.03% | -14.45% | -8.27% | +67.94% |
| FY2010 | 2011-05-27 | 2011-05-27 | +0.84% | -5.13% | -4.17% | -25.19% | -3.44% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 1,361 | +0.07% | +48.05% | short | -0.35% | 30 | -0.06 |
| 5d | 1,361 | +0.65% | +47.54% | short | -0.22% | 31 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 1,357 | +0.02% | +46.20% | short | +0.27% | 34 | +0.02 |
| 60d | 1,270 | +2.92% | +51.18% | short | -3.03% | 45 | -0.11 |
| 252d | 1,256 | +13.28% | +52.79% | short | -13.55% | 92 | -0.21 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See fcf_ni_divergence methodology for the full audit.