← fcf_turn_negative (all companies) · AIR (all signals) · all methodology
fcf_turn_negative on AAR CORP (AIR)
SIC 3720 — Aircraft & Parts · CIK 1750 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires when previously-positive operating cash flow turns negative — the cash equivalent of profit_to_loss, usually more leading.
Every time the signal fired on AIR
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2023 | 2023-07-18 | 2023-07-18 | -1.79% | -2.26% | -0.90% | +3.04% | +22.52% |
| FY2020 | 2020-07-21 | 2020-07-21 | -0.83% | -10.59% | -1.41% | +2.92% | +95.04% |
| FY2015 | 2015-07-15 | 2015-07-15 | -1.19% | -6.45% | -14.16% | -28.78% | -24.90% |
| FY2011 | 2011-07-13 | 2011-07-13 | -0.17% | +2.46% | -26.20% | -39.67% | -56.46% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,337 | -0.05% | +42.62% | short | -0.14% | 35 | -0.02 |
| 5d | 2,337 | +0.06% | +41.98% | short | +0.31% | 36 | +0.02 |
| 20d | 2,312 | -0.77% | +42.08% | short | +1.36% | 40 | +0.08 |
| 60d | 2,192 | +1.98% | +47.45% | short | -1.61% | 51 | -0.05 |
| 252d | 2,148 | +15.62% | +50.33% | short | -16.85% | 103 | -0.17 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See fcf_turn_negative methodology for the full audit.