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fcf_turn_negative on Emergent BioSolutions Inc. (EBS)
SIC 2834 — Pharmaceutical Preparations · CIK 1367644 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires when previously-positive operating cash flow turns negative — the cash equivalent of profit_to_loss, usually more leading.
Every time the signal fired on EBS
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2022 | 2023-12-11 | 2023-12-11 | -1.42% | +10.38% | +2.36% | +26.89% | +304.25% |
| FY2018 | 2019-02-22 | 2019-02-22 | -3.66% | -6.03% | -23.69% | -31.63% | -2.98% |
| FY2015 | 2016-02-29 | 2016-02-29 | +3.81% | +5.17% | +5.00% | +25.13% | -7.24% |
| FY2011 | 2012-03-09 | 2012-03-09 | -1.06% | -3.12% | -5.37% | -13.94% | -9.62% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,337 | -0.05% | +42.62% | short | -0.14% | 35 | -0.02 |
| 5d | 2,337 | +0.06% | +41.98% | short | +0.31% | 36 | +0.02 |
| 20d | 2,312 | -0.77% | +42.08% | short | +1.36% | 40 | +0.08 |
| 60d | 2,192 | +1.98% | +47.45% | short | -1.61% | 51 | -0.05 |
| 252d | 2,148 | +15.62% | +50.33% | short | -16.85% | 103 | -0.17 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See fcf_turn_negative methodology for the full audit.