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fcf_turn_negative on Heritage Global Inc. (HGBL)

SIC 7389 — Services-Business Services, NEC · CIK 849145 · default direction: short

Definition

Fires when previously-positive operating cash flow turns negative — the cash equivalent of profit_to_loss, usually more leading.

Every time the signal fired on HGBL

FYFiling dateEvent date1d5d20d60d252d
FY20252026-03-122026-03-12-4.88%+0.00%+13.82%
FY20212022-03-172022-03-17-0.72%-2.17%-19.57%-6.52%+101.45%
FY20142015-03-312015-03-31+0.00%+9.52%-33.33%-35.71%-42.86%
FY20122013-03-282013-03-28+0.00%+0.00%-15.00%-20.00%-26.00%

Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.

Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)

Horizonn eventsGross stock retHit rateTrade dirNet PnLCost (bps)r/σ net
1d2,337-0.05%+42.62%short-0.14%35-0.02
5d2,337+0.06%+41.98%short+0.31%36+0.02
20d2,312-0.77%+42.08%short+1.36%40+0.08
60d2,192+1.98%+47.45%short-1.61%51-0.05
252d2,148+15.62%+50.33%short-16.85%103-0.17

Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See fcf_turn_negative methodology for the full audit.


Data: /api/company/849145/financials