← fcf_turn_negative (all companies) · SMID (all signals) · all methodology

fcf_turn_negative on SMITH MIDLAND CORP (SMID)

SIC 3272 — Concrete Products, Except Block & Brick · CIK 924719 · default direction: short

Definition

Fires when previously-positive operating cash flow turns negative — the cash equivalent of profit_to_loss, usually more leading.

Every time the signal fired on SMID

FYFiling dateEvent date1d5d20d60d252d
FY20242025-05-272025-05-27+5.97%-2.50%+1.80%+30.86%
FY20222023-04-172023-04-17-0.30%-17.76%-12.68%+23.74%+94.32%
FY20192020-03-262020-03-26-0.40%+0.20%-7.41%+10.22%+135.87%
FY20152016-03-282016-03-28-4.41%-7.35%-13.60%-7.35%+115.49%
FY20132014-03-272014-03-27+0.94%+11.74%+5.16%-6.57%+12.51%

Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.

Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)

Horizonn eventsGross stock retHit rateTrade dirNet PnLCost (bps)r/σ net
1d2,337-0.05%+42.62%short-0.14%35-0.02
5d2,337+0.06%+41.98%short+0.31%36+0.02
20d2,312-0.77%+42.08%short+1.36%40+0.08
60d2,192+1.98%+47.45%short-1.61%51-0.05
252d2,148+15.62%+50.33%short-16.85%103-0.17

Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See fcf_turn_negative methodology for the full audit.


Data: /api/company/924719/financials