← margin_compression_severe (all companies) · AGPU (all signals) · all methodology
margin_compression_severe on Axe Compute Inc. (AGPU)
SIC 3842 — Orthopedic, Prosthetic & Surgical Appliances & Supplies · CIK 1446159 · default direction: short
Definition
Fires on >500 bps year-over-year decline in operating margin. Captures the 'good business getting worse' pattern.
Every time the signal fired on AGPU
| FY | Filing date | Event date | 1d | 5d | 20d | 60d | 252d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2019 | 2020-04-01 | 2020-04-01 | +0.71% | +0.00% | +5.71% | +26.43% | +5.00% |
| FY2018 | 2019-04-02 | 2019-04-02 | +1.65% | +3.02% | -1.10% | +9.89% | -80.77% |
| FY2015 | 2016-03-16 | 2016-03-16 | +3.85% | -3.85% | -18.27% | -13.46% | -59.04% |
| FY2012 | 2013-03-22 | 2013-03-22 | +13.04% | +13.04% | +69.57% | +47.83% | +69.57% |
| FY2011 | 2012-04-16 | 2012-04-16 | -7.69% | -24.62% | -7.69% | +7.69% | +193.85% |
Forward returns are stock returns from event date (next trading day after filing). Sign is raw stock direction; the trade direction is in the calibration table below.
Universe-wide calibration (this signal across all companies)
| Horizon | n events | Gross stock ret | Hit rate | Trade dir | Net PnL | Cost (bps) | r/σ net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 2,429 | +2.00% | +36.27% | short | -2.03% | 46 | -0.02 |
| 5d | 2,429 | +3.35% | +38.74% | short | -2.80% | 47 | -0.02 |
| 20d | 2,364 | +6.26% | +38.32% | short | -4.81% | 52 | -0.03 |
| 60d | 2,266 | +78.74% | +40.47% | short | -75.14% | 65 | -0.03 |
| 252d | 2,195 | +41.39% | +39.77% | short | -31.94% | 126 | -0.09 |
Net PnL is direction × stock return − round-trip execution cost (5 bps half-spread + ADV-tiered borrow). See margin_compression_severe methodology for the full audit.